Bitcoin (BTC +0.61%) just pulled off something that looked very unlikely just a few hours before the clock ran out in the month of March. After five consecutive months of price declines, the coin closed the month 1.8% higher, breaking the downtrend’s streak and barely avoiding a run that has been seen only once in its entire history.
That precedent, a six-month losing streak from August 2018 through January 2019, ended with one of the most ferocious recoveries Bitcoin has ever produced. Does that mean the same coiled energy is present now, or will things be different this time?
Image source: Getty Images.
The streak that almost was
Between October 2025 and February 2026, Bitcoin fell every single month, shedding roughly 45% from its all-time high near $126,000 reached in October 2025. As far as drawdowns go, this one wasn’t exceptional at all. Bitcoin has declined by 80% from its prior highs before going on to make new all-time highs at least four times in its history thus far.
The only time Bitcoin has strung together six red months was during the 2018 bear market. Then, from February through June 2019, Bitcoin rallied more than 200%, climbing from around $3,400 to above $13,000 in a powerful snapback, massively benefiting the investors who were brave enough to buy the dip.
Today’s Change
(0.61%) $432.61
Current Price
$71871.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.4T
Day’s Range
$70522.00 – $72320.00
52wk Range
$60255.56 – $126079.89
Volume
35B
This time around, the losing streak stopped at five months rather than six, so the parallel isn’t exact. But the same dynamic of prolonged pressure-testing of holders’ resolve leading to a scorching rally could still be in play.
This familiar pattern is now in an unfamiliar world
The base case is that Bitcoin’s price is going to trend upward a bit more rapidly than usual in the near term, given its potentially oversold conditions. But it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s 2018-2019 recovery played out against a relatively calm macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop compared to today.
The war in Iran has kept the price of oil elevated and it’s not clear how the ceasefire is going to play out. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s path toward interest rate cuts, which would typically support risk assets like cryptocurrencies, has grown much murkier as energy-driven inflation pressures intensify.
Yet Bitcoin has displayed stubborn resilience despite this ongoing disruption and uncertainty. Throughout the Iran conflict, the coin has held between roughly $65,000 and $73,000, at times outperforming stocks even as oil prices spiked.
For those who plan to be holding their Bitcoin for more than five years or so, the synthesis of these factors tilts toward being cautiously optimistic.
Conflicts eventually end, along with the disruptions they bring. Bitcoin will still be around whenever that happens, so it makes sense to continue accumulating it all the while as part of a diversified portfolio. If it goes on a tear from here, that’ll be the icing on the cake.
