Technology

Fidelity FTEC ETF: June Technology Dashboard

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This monthly article series shows a dashboard with aggregate industry metrics in technology and communication services. It may also serve as a top-down analysis of technology ETFs like the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (NYSEARCA:FTEC), whose largest holdings are used to calculate these metrics.

Shortcut

The next two paragraphs in italic describe the dashboard methodology. They are necessary for new readers to understand the metrics. If you are used to this series or if you are short of time, you can skip them and go to the charts.

Base Metrics

I calculate the median value of five fundamental ratios for each industry: Earnings Yield (“EY”), Sales Yield (“SY”), Free Cash Flow Yield (“FY”), Return on Equity (“ROE”), Gross Margin (“GM”). The reference universe includes large companies in the U.S. stock market. The five base metrics are calculated on trailing 12 months. For all of them, higher is better. EY, SY and FY are medians of the inverse of Price/Earnings, Price/Sales and Price/Free Cash Flow. They are better for statistical studies than price-to-something ratios, which are unusable or non-available when the “something” is close to zero or negative (for example, companies with negative earnings). I also look at two momentum metrics for each group: the median monthly return (RetM) and the median annual return (RetY).

I prefer medians to averages because a median splits a set in a good half and a bad half. A capital-weighted average is skewed by extreme values and the largest companies. My metrics are designed for stock-picking rather than index investing.

Value and Quality Scores

I calculate historical baselines for all metrics. They are noted respectively EYh, SYh, FYh, ROEh, GMh, and they are calculated as the averages on a look-back period of 11 years. For example, the value of EYh for hardware in the table below is the 11-year average of the median Earnings Yield in hardware companies.

The Value Score (“VS”) is defined as the average difference in % between the three valuation ratios (EY, SY, FY) and their baselines (EYh, SYh, FYh). The same way, the Quality Score (“QS”) is the average difference between the two quality ratios (ROE, GM) and their baselines (ROEh, GMh).

The scores are in percentage points. VS may be interpreted as the percentage of undervaluation or overvaluation relative to the baseline (positive is good, negative is bad). This interpretation must be taken with caution: the baseline is an arbitrary reference, not a supposed fair value. The formula assumes that the three valuation metrics are of equal importance.

Current data

The next table shows the metrics and scores as of last week’s closing. Columns stand for all the data named and defined above.

VS

QS

EY

SY

FY

ROE

GM

EYh

SYh

FYh

ROEh

GMh

RetM

RetY

Hardware

72.61

56.78

0.0720

1.4339

0.0627

15.77

39.76

0.0351

0.9082

0.0405

7.22

41.83

-7.12%

-2.61%

Comm. Equip.

-13.27

29.96

0.0360

0.1789

0.0342

24.53

63.01

0.0315

0.2818

0.0415

15.22

63.81

-1.08%

-14.78%

Entertainment

-7.24

-17.05

0.0284

0.6313

0.0302

10.48

47.66

0.0502

0.4382

0.0389

17.31

45.23

-8.57%

-33.24%

Electronic Equip.

-28.84

32.20

0.0464

0.4493

0.0213

18.77

41.43

0.0437

0.8311

0.0400

12.78

35.25

-5.53%

-11.74%

Software

-9.98

11.93

0.0278

0.1523

0.0316

22.19

83.80

0.0275

0.1775

0.0380

17.54

86.10

-2.57%

-36.02%

Telecom

11.23

2.98

0.0802

0.6812

0.0190

12.80

57.46

0.0493

0.6485

0.0288

11.85

58.70

-5.74%

-19.11%

Semiconductors

6.48

13.27

0.0605

0.2351

0.0351

29.37

62.75

0.0469

0.2515

0.0362

23.38

62.18

-7.86%

-14.69%

IT Services

-15.55

8.10

0.0413

0.2381

0.0256

29.65

54.42

0.0390

0.3373

0.0333

25.03

55.68

-3.22%

-14.92%

Value And Quality chart

The next chart plots the Value and Quality Scores by industry (higher is better).

Value and quality in technology

Value and quality in technology (Chart: author; data: Portfolio123)

Evolution since last month

Due to price action, the value score has improved in all tech and communication industries except in electronic equipment.

Variations in value and quality

Variations in value and quality (Chart: author; data: Portfolio123)

Momentum

The next chart plots momentum data.

Momentum in technology

Momentum in technology (Chart: author; data: Portfolio123)

Interpretation

Hardware is undervalued relative to 11-year averages. It has the best value and quality scores among all technology and communication industries. Telecom and semiconductors are slightly undervalued and quality is above the historical baseline. Other industries are overvalued by 7% to 29% relative to historical averages. Good quality metrics may partly justify it except for entertainment, whose value and quality scores are both in negative territory.

Focus on FTEC

The Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF has been tracking the MSCI USA IMI Information Technology 25/50 Index since 10/21/2013. It has a total expense ratio of 0.08%, which is a bit cheaper than other passive index ETFs in the same sector like XLK (0.12%) and VGT (0.10%). As of writing, the fund holds 363 stocks. The next table shows the top 10 holdings with basic valuation and growth metrics. Their aggregate weight is 59.39%. The top two holdings (Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp) weigh 39.55% together.

Ticker

Name

Weight%

EPS growth %TTM

P/E TTM

P/E fwd

Yield%

AAPL

Apple Inc

21.60%

38.05

22.09

22.14

0.68

MSFT

Microsoft Corp

17.95%

30.44

26.47

27.32

0.98

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

4.32%

76.41

44.46

30.34

0.10

V

Visa Inc

3.33%

32.53

31.25

27.15

0.77

MA

Mastercard Inc

2.93%

47.21

33.02

30.10

0.62

AVGO

Broadcom Inc

2.22%

87.85

24.97

13.59

3.26

ADBE

Adobe Inc

1.84%

-11.30

35.43

26.80

0.00

CSCO

Cisco Systems Inc

1.77%

18.23

15.49

13.17

3.44

ACN

Accenture plc

1.76%

17.43

28.50

26.18

1.37

INTC

Intel Corp

1.68%

35.14

6.27

10.97

3.87

Data calculated with Portfolio123

Since inception in October 2013, FTEC has slightly underperformed XLK, but the difference in annualized return and risk metrics is insignificant (see next table).

Total Return

Annual. Return

Drawdown

Sharpe

Volatility

FTEC

323.07%

18.11%

-32.15%

1.06

18.04%

XLK

333.57%

18.45%

-30.72%

1.1

17.23%

FTEC is a fund with cheap fees for investors seeking a capital-weighted exposure in technology. It holds more stocks than XLK (currently 363 vs. 79), but past performance is very close: tail holdings have a low aggregate weight relative to S&P 500 tech companies. Long-term investors may indifferently choose FTEC or XLK. Liquidity makes XLK a better choice for tactical allocation and trading. If overweight in Apple and Microsoft is a concern, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (RYT) may be a better choice.

Dashboard List

I use the first table to calculate value and quality scores. It may also be used in a stock-picking process to check how companies stand among their peers. For example, the EY column tells us that a hardware company with an earnings yield above 0.0720 (or price/earnings below 13.89) is in the better half of the industry regarding this metric. A Dashboard List is sent every month to Quantitative Risk & Value subscribers with the most profitable companies standing in the better half among their peers regarding the three valuation metrics at the same time. The list below was sent to subscribers several weeks ago based on data available at this time.

TDC

Teradata Corporation

KLIC

Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc

ZD

Ziff Davis Inc

THRY

Thryv Holdings Inc

EXTR

Extreme Networks Inc

SWKS

Skyworks Solutions Inc

NXPI

NXP Semiconductors NV

It is a rotating list with a statistical bias toward excess returns on the long-term, not the result of an analysis of each stock.

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