NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report points to a more burdensome outlook for major U.S. crops, as rising supplies and softer demand push ending stocks higher across several commodities.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year are projected at 938 million bushels, up 10 percent from last year and the highest level since 2019/20. Globally, wheat supplies are also increasing, while consumption declines—particularly in India—contributing to larger stockpiles worldwide.
Corn outlook remains largely unchanged, though strong demand has supported usage so far this marketing year. Soybeans saw a shift in demand dynamics, with higher domestic crush offset by weaker exports amid strong competition from South America.
Rice markets are showing signs of weakening, with U.S. ending stocks expected to reach their highest level in decades as both domestic use and exports decline.
Globally, production is rising for several commodities, including coarse grains and cotton, while trade is slowing in some key markets. As a result, global ending stocks are building across wheat, corn, rice, and cotton.
In livestock, U.S. beef and pork production forecasts are lowered, while poultry output is expected to increase. Milk production is also projected to be higher, with stronger dairy prices supported by demand.
Overall, the report suggests a shift toward more comfortable supply levels, with demand emerging as a key factor to watch in the months ahead.
Following the release of the April WASDE report, Market Day Report provided live coverage as the markets reacted to the latest USDA data. Watch below:
Private Estimates Signal Stable Supplies
Ahead of the report’s release, traders were closely watching for updates on U.S. ending stocks and South American production, though early expectations suggest the report may bring limited surprises. Bob Mauer says current trade estimates point to only minor adjustments:
“Based on my assessment of the average guesstimates for tomorrow in terms of U.S. grain ending stocks, world crop production numbers and world grain ending stocks, not a whole lot of changes from the last USDA report, maybe a slight uptick in terms of the crop production numbers for corn and in Brazil, so we’ll see how that plays out.”
According to analysts surveyed by Reuters, U.S. corn ending stocks are المتوقع at 2.13 billion bushels, up from roughly 1.5 billion bushels a year ago. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 351 million bushels, while wheat is expected to come in at 920 million bushels.
In South America, production estimates for Brazil and Argentina are largely in line with the USDA’s previous outlook. Brazil’s soybean crop is currently forecast at 180 million metric tons.
Fuel Costs Add Pressure on Farms
While markets await fresh data, global tensions are already impacting farm profitability. Despite a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely inaccessible to commercial traffic, keeping diesel prices elevated. K-State Ag Economist Gregg Ibendahl told RFD NEWS on Wednesday that higher fuel costs could significantly impact farm budgets.
“So farmers are going to be stuck kind of paying higher diesel prices this year. My analysis for Kansas grain farms showed that they spent about 30,000 last year, you know, based on what the current diesel price is. You could easily add another $18,000 per grain farm just from the diesel side. Assuming most farmers actually have their fertilizer booked, that’s not going to be such a big deal this spring, but certainly going into wheat planting season in the fall and even in the next year, when farmers do like to buy their fertilizer in the fall. So, you know, 2027 is really not shaping up to be a very good year right now.”
Economists note that fertilizer prices tend to follow energy markets with a delay. Ibendahl adds: “My modeling of fertilizer prices really shows there’s about a six-month delay between oil prices going up and fertilizer prices going up. And I already saw yesterday that anhydro price has broken $1,000 a ton. So I still think there’s probably another $100, maybe up to $200 a ton on anhydrous ahead that could happen before the fall rolls around.”
Other analysts agree that volatility may vary across nutrients. Gary Schnitkey says nitrogen-based fertilizers could see the most pressure:
“We think this is going to persist into the fall, but we can particularly see the nitrogen side going up. What’s going to be interesting is to see what happens to sulfuric acid. Potash may be a little bit sheltered from these increases. Urea is not. Urea is particularly one that is imported from the Middle East, and that has seen our largest increase.”
Uncertainty Remains in Global Markets
Although a two-week ceasefire has been announced, uncertainty remains high as negotiations continue and access through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key issue.
Brian Hoops says markets are reacting to rapidly changing developments:
“Things can change. There’s a tentative agreement in place, but they have to hammer out all the details. Now what we’ve seen from Iran, there is a lot of things that they’re asking for. There’s no way that the U.S. is going to give in to it. So there’s going to be a lot of trade and back and forth yet over the next couple of weeks, and so we may see more headlines where the war is back on or if President Trump threatens to bomb them again until we get everything ironed out.”
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