Mexico’s ICT sector reached a sales peak in March 2026, but declining confidence and widespread missed targets signal weakening momentum. The gap between revenue and profitability reflects structural pressures affecting tech providers, enterprise clients, and AI-driven services.
The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sales index increased five points in March 2026, reaching 65.7 units, reports Select. This performance represents a peak for the current year, though a significant decline in business confidence suggests a shift in market momentum for the second quarter.
The discrepancy between gross sales and net profitability continues to define the current fiscal landscape. “The consolidation of pending projects from the previous year and the integration of AI supported revenue, even as 58% of organizations failed to reach their 1Q26 growth targets,” says Arely Reyes Gaspar, Research Analyst, Select.
The ICT market experienced a measurable recovery during March 2026, explains Select. The firm reports that its sales index rose to 65.7 units, marking an increase of 4.9 points from the previous month. This expansion occurred as 67.5% of companies reported growth in their monthly sales. Within this segment, 59% of organizations achieved moderate growth, while 8.4% reported substantial increases in revenue. Select indicates that while demand remains active, the intensity of that demand is concentrated in a small fraction of the market.
Conversely, 32.5% of the industry failed to record expansion during the month. Data indicates that 24.1% of companies remained stagnant, 4.8% experienced a slight decrease, and 3.6% saw a significant contraction. These results highlight a divergence in the ability of providers to capitalize on market needs.
Historically, March serves as a deadline for budget execution for many enterprise clients, as it marks the end of the first quarter of the year. The growth observed suggests that organizations are prioritizing digital transformation to maintain competitiveness. However, the fact that a majority of companies missed their quarterly targets suggests that the March peak was insufficient to offset the slower performance recorded in January and February, reports Select.
Drivers, Barriers, and Future Outlook
The failure of 58% of the industry to meet 1Q26 goals points toward structural challenges that go beyond simple sales volume. While 41% of companies met their expectations, the remaining majority faces a deficit in their annual projections. The reasons behind this performance are multifaceted and involve both internal strategies and external pressures.
Organizations that met their objectives identified eight categories as the primary pillars of their success. The completion of projects that were initiated in 2025 but remained unclosed until the first quarter of 2026 provided a necessary boost to billing. This backlog of legacy projects served as a critical revenue stream during a period of otherwise cautious spending.
Furthermore, portfolio diversification has allowed providers to mitigate risks associated with specific niches. Investment in new technologies, particularly AI, remains the most significant catalyst for new business. Enterprise clients are increasingly seeking AI solutions to improve process efficiency and reduce long-term operational costs.
Despite these opportunities, 13% of the companies surveyed by Select reported that no internal efforts were enough to reach their 1Q26 goals. The barriers to growth are categorized into international and domestic factors. Internationally, the volatility of the US dollar has increased the cost of imported hardware and software licensing. Additionally, the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran has disrupted global supply chains and increased logistics costs for technology components.
The outlook for the second quarter of 2026 shows a marked cooling of expectations. The index for expected sales in April decreased by 6.1 points, settling at 69.4. Although 58% of companies still expect moderate growth and 14.8% anticipate high growth, a significant 27.2% of the market expects no growth at all for the coming month.
Quarterly optimism recorded a decline of 3.8 points, reaching its lowest level of the year at 51.2 units. This figure is particularly concerning for the industry as it sits just above the 50-point threshold that separates economic expansion from contraction. If the current trajectory continues, the sector could face a period of stagnation in 2H26, warns the firm.
