April 23, 2024
World Economy

China likely to be world’s largest economy by 2035


China is highly likely to surpass the US as the world’s largest economy around 2035 if it sustains an annual GDP growth rate of approximately 5 percent in the coming years, maintaining at least 4 percent growth until 2035.

  • A pedestrian walks across an elevated bridge showing index figures for the Shanghai, top, and Shenzhen, bottom, stock exchanges in Shanghai, January 14, 2016. (AP)
    A pedestrian walks across an elevated bridge showing index figures for the Shanghai, top, and Shenzhen, bottom, stock exchanges in Shanghai, January 14, 2016. (AP)

A report by a multinational think tank, including scholars from the US, Russia, Canada, India, and China, forecasts that China’s GDP will likely surpass that of the US around 2035, making it the world’s largest economy. The report suggests that China’s robust growth will drive the global economy forward.

The report also emphasized that China must depend on sustained and cumulative “compounding interest” to set its vision for 2035. This entails gradually achieving high-quality development and fostering the cultivation and development of new high-quality productive forces.

Read next: China’s factory activity rebounds after five-month slump

The ambitious estimate was one of the 10 visions outlined for China in 2035 in a joint research report by a multinational think tank team, which included the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. The report was released during an international symposium held on Sunday.

Domestic and foreign analysts anticipate that China will sustain its growth momentum and meet its annual GDP growth target for 2024, while navigating challenges cautiously. The report suggests that China is likely to surpass the US as the world’s largest economy around 2035, provided it maintains annual GDP growth of approximately 5 percent in the coming years and at least 4 percent growth until 2035.

Chinese vision to surpass US 

The vision is founded on several factors, including China’s faster economic growth compared to the US, the continuous appreciation of the yuan, its increased internationalization, and the long-term bullish outlook for the yuan against the US dollar, as outlined in the report. The report stated that developing countries are poised to become the core engine of global economic growth, with their high growth rates potentially doubling global GDP in the next decade.

China has set an economic growth target of approximately 5 percent for 2024, surpassing the expectations of certain international institutions.

John Ross, a senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, emphasized to the Global Times that China’s investment is significantly more efficient than that of the US, pointing out that if China invests approximately 40 percent of its GDP, then its GDP growth will reach 5 percent. This suggests that China’s economic growth rate will largely surpass that of the US and the EU, based on data from last year, and China will continue to be the primary driver of global economic growth as it has been for the past four decades.

The report highlighted China’s remarkable achievements in high-quality economic and social development in recent years, attributing these successes to China’s “compounding interest” principle.





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