On the April 13, 2026, episode of The Morning Filter podcast, David Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss upcoming earnings this week. Here is an excerpt from the show.
Will ASML’s Momentum Last?
Susan Dziubinski: Now, we also have ASML ASML reporting this week. The company’s ADRs are having a pretty terrific year. They’re up 38%, and Morningstar assigns the ADRs a $1,170 fair value estimate, and they’re trading at a premium to that. What’s the market like here, and what will the resulting forecasts need to look like to keep that stock price momentum going?
David Sekera: It’s not just the momentum here in the short term. If you take a look at the chart here, this stock has doubled since Sept. 1, 2025. This has gone pretty quickly from a 4-star stock to a 2-star stock. It’s now trading at a 27% premium to fair value. With earnings this season, it’s not going to be a question of whether or not demand is going to be the issue. If you look at the last quarter, the company noted that it exited 2025 with a record-breaking backlog. There’s a huge amount of demand here. I think the question for the marketplace going forward is going to be execution. The market wants to hear more color on the cadence of shipments over the course of 2026, just to make sure that they’re going to be able to execute on all of that demand that they have.
Of course, the wildcard on this one is going to be what any potential impacts could be from US policy regulating the export of semi-manufacturing equipment to China. It’s really going to be execution that is the key, and whether or not there’s any impact from US regulatory policy.
Is TSM a Buy Ahead of Earnings?
Dziubinski: We also have Taiwan Semiconductor TSM reporting this week. Stocks are up more than 20% this year, but it still trades below Morningstar’s $428 fair value. What’s your take on the company? Given its valuation, is it a stock to buy ahead of earnings?
Sekera: Like anything else with Taiwan Semi, it’s not necessarily just about Taiwan Semi itself—it’s also about what it indicates for all the other AI manufacturing and AI semiconductor companies. Of course, Taiwan Semi is most known for being the manufacturer for Nvidia NVDA and other AI chips. I think it’s a good early indicator as far as the pace of the AI buildout boom. The big thing that we’re going to be listening for with Taiwan Semi is going to be visibility into AI training versus inference demand. If inference demand is picking up, then that is a good indicator that the AI buildout boom is more structural than it is transitory. We’re listening for that change in how AI chips are being used going forward. Lastly, I just want to hear if there’s any signs of dislocations or delays in AI capex spending, given geopolitically everything that’s going on, some of the energy cost headlines, some of the supply chain problems that we’re starting to hear about—things like helium, that’s used in the manufacturing of chips—and whether or not that’s making any kind of disruptions in their production timelines.
As you’ve noted, this is one where we’ve recommended the stock a number of times over the past several years. There’s probably still some good upside momentum here. I would just say there’s no longer that margin of safety I’d really like to see in this one. The company released its March revenue numbers. We got a pretty good stock pop after that last week. At this point, it trades at a 13% discount to our fair value, so it barely keeps it in that 4-star range. This is one where I would say, let’s wait and see what comes out after earnings. I want to see if there’s going to be an increase to our fair value estimate from our analyst team. If so, and we’ve got that good momentum, then it’s probably a good one to take a stab at with buying a position in.
Why to Watch the Potential Impact of Netflix’s Price Increases
Dziubinski: Netflix NFLX announced in late March that it was increasing prices across all its US plans and tiers, and its acquisition of Warner Brothers WBD fell through in the first quarter. Given all that, what do you expect management to address on this week’s earnings call?
Sekera: What we really want to hear about is any potential impact of those price increases, whether or not we should be expecting a slowing in subscription growth, or if there’s an increase in churn in subscriptions; whether or not that’s people that drop their subscription overall, or maybe move from being a premium subscription to that ad-supported subscription. I think that’s going to be a pretty good indication of just how much pricing power Netflix has. An interesting thing that our analyst noted in his write-up is that if Netflix can put these price increases through annually, as opposed to our base case that their price increases go through every 18 to 24 months, our forecast is probably too bearish at this point. The other big part here is going to be their advertising revenue growth, especially in light of those price increases, because again, if you get more people switching to that ad-based platform away from premium, you need to have that ad revenue pick up in order to make up that difference.
Lastly, we just want to get an idea as far as the stock buybacks that they’re going to be executing, following that acquisition of Warner Brothers that fell through, and how much that’s going to be able to soak up any supply that’s going to be out there in the marketplace if people are selling.
Netflix’s Stock Valuation Ahead of Earnings
Dziubinski: Now, what about valuation for Netflix, Dave? How’s the stock look heading into earnings?
Sekera: Not very good according to our numbers. If you take a look at the chart, the stock peaked last June; it’s really down 25% since then. In my view, in that downward channel, but even after that selloff, it’s still a 29% premium, 2-star-rated stock. I’d note that the market still expects very strong growth here. It trades at 32 times our forward earnings estimate.
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