Nine weeks of war in the Middle East sufficed to lead to a significant revision of macroeconomic estimates, with growth falling by about half a point, close to 1.7%, and inflation rising by up to 1.5 points, above 4%.
Economists invited by Kathimerini to assess the war’s damage so far spoke about the positive aspects of the speed the Greek economy has developed since the high performance of previous years, the signs of resilience that tourism presents as a key driver of economic activity, but also the risks that lurk in the economic environment in the event of an extension or escalation of the war in the Persian Gulf.
Based on the data so far, the impact of the crisis is estimated to be stronger on inflation and milder on growth, with estimates converging on a growth rate of 1.5% to 1.8% and inflation from 3.5% to 5% for this year.
“Our revised estimate for the 2026 growth rate no longer has the number 2 in front,” Alpha Bank chief economist Panagiotis Kapopoulos said, expressing an assessment that is currently supported by the Bank of Greece, the IMF, S&P and the chief economists of the other systemic banks.
The National Economy and Finance Ministry, in the annual progress report submitted this week to the European Commission, set the bar at the 2% limit, well below the 2.4% forecast in the budget.
The Greek economy may also come under pressure from the eurozone, where growth was already expected to be weak even before the war. According to Eurobank chief economist Tassos Anastasatos, “the two main channels through which the crisis is transmitted to the country are obviously energy prices, but also the eurozone slowdown, which amounts to at least 0.3%.
However, Greece has secured two “cushions,” economists note: on the one hand, the growth momentum and the primary surpluses for several years, which create fiscal space for the adoption of support measures, and on the other hand, the Recovery Fund, which ensures significant investment flows and supports the medium-term growth momentum.
