Forecast Trend Report by Period
Donald Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire with Iran would be extended helped lift Bitcoin above 116 million won, or about $84,000, for the first time in roughly three months. The rebound in institutional inflows has fueled expectations for further gains. Still, the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions and profit-taking after the recent rally remains.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have drawn $2.44 billion of net inflows so far this month.
According to Upbit, Bitcoin recovered the 116 million won level on April 23. It was the first time in about three months that the cryptocurrency had returned to that range after falling into the 90 million won band earlier this year. Since then, it has held in the mid- to upper-115 million won range, signaling a gradual recovery.
The fallout from the Middle East war had kept Bitcoin largely range-bound around 100 million won since February. The token has extended its advance this month. It started April at 103.13 million won, broke above 110 million won on April 15 and is now aiming to reclaim the 120 million won range. The uptrend has also held in dollar terms. CoinMarketCap data show Bitcoin fell to $62,704 on Feb. 6, then climbed to $74,855 on March 17, a rebound of more than $12,000 in a little over a month. It reached $78,264 on April 24 and was recently trading in the mid-$77,000 range.
Institutional buying through US spot ETFs has helped drive the rally. Data provider SoSoValue shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted inflows for four straight weeks and recorded net inflows in eight of the past nine weeks. The funds took in a net $1.32 billion in March, their first monthly net inflow this year. So far in April, net inflows have accelerated to $2.44 billion.
Bullish calls on Bitcoin are gaining traction as the cryptocurrency’s appeal as an investment asset grows. In a recent report, market researcher Tiger Research set a 12-month Bitcoin price target of $143,000. The firm cited record global liquidity, renewed institutional inflows and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its rate-cutting stance once the impact of the Iran conflict eases.
“If three conditions come together — Bitcoin breaking above the average entry price of long-term holders, ETF inflows remaining steady, and the Fed pivoting after geopolitical risks ease — the target is well within reach,” Yoon Seung-sik, head of research at Tiger Research, said.
Analysts say Bitcoin has already moved above the key $75,000 threshold, potentially setting the stage for faster gains than in previous cycles. “If Bitcoin decisively breaks above $75,000, that would signal more than a simple price increase. It would mark a structural breakout,” Marty Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, said. That would indicate a shift into a new uptrend. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could rise as high as $85,000 this month.
Some analysts caution that it is too early to turn fully bullish. Negotiations between the US and Iran to end the conflict have progressed slowly, raising the possibility that the stalemate could drag on. The market’s sensitivity to Trump’s remarks is another risk. On April 2, the day after Trump made hawkish comments on Iran, Bitcoin briefly fell below 100 million won on Upbit. In overseas markets, it dropped below $67,000, deepening the decline.
Kim Soo-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter ksoohyun@hankyung.com
