Greek banks have entered the second half of 2026 with strong momentum from loan disbursements, as net credit expansion is estimated to reach €10-12 billion by the end of the year, one of the highest performances of the last 15 years.
A decisive role is played by the disbursements of the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) resources, which continue to fuel large and medium-sized investment projects, as well as the new generation of financing tools from the Hellenic Development Bank (HDB), which seeks to leverage important capital for small and medium-sized enterprises through €2 billion that is expected to be managed from the RRF’s unused resources.
This momentum is confirmed in an analysis by Axia-Alpha Finance, which predicts that loans will grow at an average annual rate of around 8% in the 2026-2028 period, one of the three highest in the eurozone.
According to Axia-Alpha Finance, the development is not temporary, as the Greek economy is still in the phase of restarting bank lending after many years of deleveraging during the financial crisis. Contacts with banks’ managements showed Axia-AF that despite the fact that the RRF is formally ending, the pipeline of projects remains strong, particularly in the tourism, energy and shipping sectors, without a decrease in the demand for loans being observed, so far at least. As it explains, businesses are still increasing investments and financing new projects, covering the large investment gap of the previous decade.
Credit expansion for both 2026 and 2027 is estimated to be supported by the large and medium-sized investment projects that were left out of the RRF (about 390 investment projects with a total budget of €9 billion) and which, according to banking sources, will be financed through conventional bank lending or other financing tools. The transfer of €2 billion from the RRF to the HDB is estimated to act as a safety net for mature investment projects that did not secure a place in the fund, mainly from the pool of SMEs.
