More than half of rural bank CEOs across a 10-state region said that weak grain prices were the top factor in constraining farmers’ financial conditions in their area, according to the May Rural Mainstreet Index.
The index created by Ernie Goss, an economist and professor at Creighton University, and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America, measures economic conditions in rural communities dependent on agriculture and energy.
Nebraska’s overall index fell to 51.4 in May from 53.9 in April. Regionally, the index dropped to 45.7 from 47.9, the fourth straight month it has fallen below the growth-neutral threshold of 50.
Goss said tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have drawn retaliation from trading partners, including new tariffs China has placed on Nebraska and U.S. products, along with other countries.
“We’re seeing some restrictions on trade coming in. For example, steel and aluminum coming in from Canada. That has some negative impacts on the agricultural economy,” Goss said. “The agricultural equipment sales have been down now for 33 straight months. So that’s certainly not good news.”
Nebraska’s new hiring index dropped to 47.7 from 54.8 in April. Goss pointed to the closure of the Tyson plant in Lexington, which cost the area 3,200 jobs, as a major driver.
“We’re now coming up with closures of some other food processing plants. And that’s very important for agriculture and very important for the economy of Nebraska,” Goss said. “So that’s creating some real negative spillovers in the state. And I expect those to continue to pull down and at least restrain growth in the Nebraska economy.”
Nebraska’s agricultural exports sank too, falling 16.6% to $271.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, even as exports climbed 7.5% across the region. Goss said the difference comes down to what Nebraska sells abroad, particularly food processing, which has struggled to compete internationally, not just in Nebraska but across the country.
One bright spot in the index was Nebraska’s unemployment rate, which has held steady at 3%, below the national rate of 4.3%.
Nearly three-quarters of bankers surveyed recommended the Federal Reserve hold interest rates steady. Goss said inflationary pressures remain too high for a cut, even as the national job market continues to hold up. Employers added 172,000 jobs nationally in May.
“Nebraska’s numbers are going to come in weaker than that simply because manufacturing in Nebraska, those job losses in food processing, those are spilling over into the broader economy,” Goss said. “Likewise, exports of agricultural products are just not as strong coming out of Nebraska.”
Nebraska’s farm and ranchland price index fell to 51.8 from 54.4 in April. Across the broader 10-state area, the farmland price index expanded in May to 50.1, breaking three months of decline.
Goss said he doesn’t see the regional rebound as a one-month glitch, pointing to farmers’ continued willingness to buy land for the long term, even as many ranchers don’t have enough cattle on hand to cash in on strong livestock prices.
“Livestock prices have been holding up. But unfortunately, there’s not a lot of cattle out there,” Goss said. “So even though cattle prices, livestock prices have been very strong, they’re just the ranchers have not had enough animals to sell.”
Looking ahead, Goss said relief depends largely on resolving supply chain disruptions and bringing down the cost of agricultural inputs.
“There’s too much inflationary pressure built into the pipeline right now,” he said. “Fertilizer costs are going to cut into the farmers’ cash flow.”
The Rural Mainstreet Index is a monthly survey of bank CEOs in around 200 rural communities across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota and South Dakota. The communities have an average population of about 1,300.
