Bitcoin remains pinned to the most important line in the current crypto market. BTC wicked below the June 5th low for a second day in a row on Thursday, reaching $58,115, while daily RSI slipped into oversold territory at 24.95. The market is still fighting, but the working expectation remains that BTC loses $59,000 and moves toward $49,000 next.
Bitcoin keeps testing the $59,000 support zone
BTC continues to put up a fight around the same support area, but the repeated wicks below the June 5th low are not a clean bullish signal. The chart has now pierced lower two days in a row, and the daily close around $59,000 remains the important trigger. If that level gives way, the next downside area in focus is $49,000.
The oversold RSI reading does not automatically mark a bottom. In this analysis, oversold conditions are important context, but the chart still needs structure, volume, and confirmation before the market can treat it as a stronger reversal setup.
Ethereum remains very strong bearish
ETH almost exceeded the June 6th low at $1,505, dropping to $1,512 on Thursday. That keeps Ethereum in a vulnerable position. ETH remains very strong bearish with weak volume, and the next major trigger is a daily close below $1,500.
Once ETH closes below $1,500, the expectation is for volume to steadily pick up into the next long liquidation cascade. The next artificial support target remains $1,385, which keeps the downside path clearly defined if Bitcoin also loses its key support.
Stablecoin dominance confirms the risk-off message
The strongest signal from Thursday’s close came from combined stablecoin dominance. It closed above 12.506% TBO Resistance, printed a third and final TBO Breakout, and pushed above 13% intraday. That combination suggests capital is continuing to hide in stablecoins instead of rotating into crypto risk assets.
BTC dominance is also bouncing off TBO Support, which is causing more pain for altcoins and giving BTC bulls a false sense of hope. Meanwhile, ETH.D is dumping, OTHERS.D is down nearly 1%, and total-market breadth continues to deteriorate.
USDJPY is the macro warning chart
DXY remains overbought and has not yet pushed to a higher local high beyond 101.800, but the bigger macro concern is USDJPY. USDJPY made a higher high on Thursday at 161.948, just 0.003 away from the July 2024 high at 161.951.
That is an extremely dangerous chart. Without a pullback, the yen risk becomes much harder to ignore. EURUSD remains oversold and could print a bullish RSI reset if DXY pulls back, but for now the dollar and yen charts remain central to the broader risk backdrop.
S&P Futures breaks support into a short setup
S&P Futures printed a TBO Close Long on Thursday and broke below short-term support. That is the setup Aaron had been waiting for. Now that short-term support has been lost, the chart has two reasons to bounce toward the daily TBO Fast line, which aligns with the newly lost support area.
If price tags that area and respects the lost support as resistance, it creates a clean short setup. SPX still has several lower gaps that have not been closed, and DJI, NDX, FANG, NVDA, TSLA, SPCX, and VIX all add context to a broader equity tape that is not supporting risk assets.
Asian markets and altcoins extend the risk-off theme
Asian markets added another warning. The Nikkei erased Thursday’s green pump in a single day and was down 4.7%, the Shanghai Composite was down more than 2%, the Hang Seng lost the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, and the KOSPI was down more than 8% and counting.
Altcoins are also broadly weak. XRP is close to losing $1, with the next significant support at 0.9380 and a larger fair-value gap target between 0.50 and 0.57 if that breaks. BNB, DOGE, HYPE, CC, XLM, M, HBAR, MNT, DOT, NEAR, VIRTUAL, PENGU, WIF, and several others continue to show breakdowns, open shorts, bearish divergences, or weak continuation patterns.
There are still isolated names trying to bounce, including LAB pushing higher and H trying to pop back up, but the broader environment remains risk-off. Until BTC proves it can defend the current support zone and stablecoin dominance stops confirming fear, the safer read remains defensive.
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