Bitcoin plunged below $60,000 on Friday with a $59,100 low, and XRP, which should have fallen 1.3 to 1.6 times more as it usually does, held above $1 by bottoming at $1.08. On the 30-day timeframe, Bitcoin is down 26.8% versus XRP down only 23.3%.
While Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.43 billion outflows in May (the worst month of 2026) and Ethereum ETFs lost $540 million, spot XRP ETFs pulled in a record $131.94 million. In early June, the funds added another $4.13 million in inflows, and whale wallets climbed to a record 332,230 addresses.
If Bitcoin tests $55,000, the new 0.87 XRP and BTC ratio coil see the XRP price drop to $1.05, just above the $1 line. But if Bitcoin tests $50,000, even the new ratio shows XRP would drop to $0.97, with $0.95, $0.75 to $0.85, and $0.53 as the next levels of support in deeper bearish scenarios.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) plunged below $60,000 on Friday, briefly dropping to $59,100 before retracing. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) did the routine tag-along with BTC, by also dropping to $1.09. But what’s interesting is that XRP didn’t fall steeply the way it normally does.
The XRP price usually drops way lower than Bitcoin does whenever BTC falls. From the October 2025 cycle peak through today’s lows, Bitcoin has dropped about 52%, while XRP has plunged about 69%, or 1.3 times more.
However, over the last 30 days, the ratio has changed a bit. Bitcoin is down 26.8%, and XRP is down only 23.3%, showing that XRP might finally be decoupling. So, if Bitcoin falls below $60K again, toward $55,000 or $50,000, will XRP follow suit and drop below $1?
How XRP Has Followed Bitcoin Through the 2026 Downturn
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This isn’t the first time XRP has been dragged down by Bitcoin in 2026. When Bitcoin slid from its $126,000 October 2025 cycle high to around $80,000 by year-end, that was about a 36% drop for BTC. XRP fell from roughly $3.00 to $1.85 over the same stretch, which was about a 38% drop.
The decline kept going into early 2026, and it got worse for XRP. Bitcoin dropped another 25%, from $80,000 to around $60,000. XRP fell 40% over that same stretch, from $1.85 to $1.11, which is about 1.6 times more than Bitcoin’s drop.
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This pattern keeps holding because money is still flowing into Bitcoin, not into altcoins like XRP. BTC dominance is at 58%, near the cycle highs, and the Altcoin Season Index reads 39 out of 100, firmly in Bitcoin Season territory. Until the Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%, XRP will keep following Bitcoin lower whenever it dips, and rallying less when BTC bounces back.
So, when Bitcoin plunged below $60K on Friday, the natural expectation was that XRP would test below $1 the same way it has all year. But this time, that didn’t happen.
What XRP Did When Bitcoin Plunged Below $60K
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Looking at the last 30 days, the pattern has clearly shifted. Bitcoin is down 26.8%, and XRP is down only 23.3%. XRP’s drop is only 0.87 times Bitcoin’s, which is well below the 1.3 to 1.6 times that has defined the rest of the 2026 downturn. The coin bottomed at $1.08 on June 5 during Bitcoin’s plunge to $59,100, and has now rallied to $1.15 today, up 6.5% in 24 hours while Bitcoin is up only 3.2%.
What changed this time is the institutional demand for XRP. While Bitcoin ETFs lost $2.43 billion in May (the worst monthly result of 2026) and Ethereum ETFs lost $540 million, spot XRP ETFs pulled in $131.94 million for a record month. In the first days of June, the funds added another $4.13 million in inflows even as the price kept falling.
Behind the scenes, more than 25 million XRP moved off exchanges, and whale wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP climbed to a record 332,230 addresses. Long-term holders also added 22% to their positions between May 31 and June 2.
This is what institutional demand was supposed to do, which is to keep XRP from falling apart during a bear market like this one. Bitcoin’s institutional buyers have slowed down across the board with $1.5 billion in long liquidations on June 5 alone, while XRP held its ground.
What Could Still Break XRP’s $1 Floor
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There are still some things that could break this decoupling. Binance XRP liquidity is at its lowest since January 2020, which means even small trades can move the XRP price either way.
On June 3, XRP ETFs also recorded their first net outflow since April 30 at $5.34 million, breaking a five-week inflow streak. Short positions outweigh longs by nine to one right now, which is a setup that could go either way. If Bitcoin rebounds, the shorts get squeezed and XRP rallies. If Bitcoin keeps falling, the selloff amplifies. And Ripple’s June 1 escrow unlock added 200 to 400 million XRP in net new supply to a falling market.
So, what Bitcoin does next could decide XRP’s $1 floor. Polymarket currently prices a 64% chance Bitcoin breaks $55,000 before year-end and a 51% chance it tests $50,000. If Bitcoin drops to $55K, which is about a 10% drop from today’s $61,000, the new 0.87 ratio puts XRP at $1.05, just above $1. The historical 1.5 ratio puts XRP at $0.98, just below it. If Bitcoin drops further to $50K, even the 0.87 ratio puts XRP at $0.97, below $1, while the 1.5 ratio puts XRP at $0.84.
So the decoupling protects XRP at small Bitcoin drawdowns, but it doesn’t hold up if Bitcoin tests $50K. Below $1, the next layer of XRP support is $0.95, then the $0.75 to $0.85 historical accumulation zone, then $0.53 in the extreme bearish scenario. So if Bitcoin stays above $55K, XRP could still probably hold above $1. But if Bitcoin breaks below that, XRP’s institutional demand might not be strong enough to hold the line.
What Decides Whether XRP Holds $1
Institutional demand held XRP up this round, but whether it can do the same next time depends on a few things. The first is whether Bitcoin holds the current $61,000 bounce or rolls back below $60K. If Bitcoin tests $60K again, XRP will face the same bearish pressure, but institutional demand might already be weaker than it was this round.
The second is whether XRP ETF flows recover from the June 3 outflow break. Five weeks of inflows ending the same week XRP slid through $1.20 wasn’t random. So, the buying needs to come back to hold the price up.
The third is whether the CLARITY Act gets a Senate floor vote scheduled before the August recess. The bill remains the biggest catalyst for XRP and crypto at large.
So will XRP crack $1 if Bitcoin plunges below $60K? So far, the answer is no. Institutional demand has held XRP up through this round, but what happens next still depends on where Bitcoin goes from here.
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