Forecast Trend Report by Period
The altcoin market remains in a selective rebound despite earlier optimism and sharp gains in a handful of tokens, as shrinking trading volume combines with uncertainty over the CLARITY Act and spot ETF flows. The current upswing still looks more like a technical bounce than the start of a broad market recovery, making any rebound in volume and fund flows a key test.
Velvet Soars 1,334%, but Altcoin Volume Falls to Lowest Since Mid-2024
The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of stabilizing after a sharp selloff, with Bitcoin rebounding from the $60,000 range to around $63,000 and helping some altcoins recover part of their losses. Among the top 300 altcoins by market capitalization, more than 180 posted gains over the past week, suggesting an attempt at a short-term rebound.
CoinMarketCap data on June 12 showed Velvet up 1,334% over the past week, followed by Beat up 342%, Stargate up 196%, ALLO up 112%, Bitway up 75.9%, EtherGas up 67.6%, GCOIN up 62.2%, SKYAI up 55.8%, JCT up 42.5% and Curve up 37.9%. Velvet, which surged more than 1,000%, drew investor attention after its on-chain terminal’s pre-IPO trading service for SpaceX shares became known.
Still, steep declines in some tokens show the broader market recovery remains limited. Humanity fell 50.7%, HOME dropped 41.5%, SIREN lost 33.7%, HEX slid 27.2%, Rootstock Infrastructure Framework declined 26.2%, dYdX fell 24.1%, USELESS dropped 20.5% and PulseX lost 17.5%.
Even with rebounds in some tokens, differentiation across the altcoin market is becoming more pronounced. Crypto research firm 10x Research said the market has moved beyond a simple correction and entered a phase in which surviving tokens are separating from those being left behind. In this environment, avoiding projects that are structurally unlikely to survive may matter as much as finding the small number of coins with upside potential.
Trading activity, meanwhile, remains subdued. On-chain analytics firm Santiment said trading volume in major large-cap cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins has fallen to its lowest level since mid-2024. Macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and the aftereffects of recent liquidations have kept investors from trading aggressively. Extremely weak interest and participation could leave room for a sharper short-term bounce if sidelined capital returns.
Ceasefire Hopes Offer Relief, but Flow Headwinds Still Test Altcoin Rally
The altcoin market has recovered part of its losses, but the move still appears closer to a technical rebound than a structural recovery. Hopes for ceasefire talks between the US and Iran have resurfaced, easing Middle East tensions somewhat. Uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, and weak flows into spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds continue to limit the durability of the rebound.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said total cryptocurrency market capitalization had edged up to about $2.17 trillion, but the move appeared closer to a technical rebound near the 200-week simple moving average than the start of a full recovery. Smaller and mid-cap tokens such as SushiSwap, Cosmos and Official Trump led the bounce, while Aptos, Algorand and Zcash remained weak.
Geopolitical tensions have eased as expectations for US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have returned. But market participants are watching not only developments in the Middle East, but also whether the CLARITY Act advances and whether demand for spot ETFs recovers. Near-term hopes for legislation have weakened as Republicans and Democrats remain divided over crypto ethics rules for senior public officials. Industry participants still see a path to the bill’s eventual passage, but some remain cautious as the approaching midterm elections leave less time for lawmakers to complete legislation this year.
Seasonally, some analysts have raised the possibility of a rebound after a June low, though it is too early to call a recovery. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin may be forming a low in June, but it is still too soon to confirm that. In past US midterm election years, markets have sometimes rebounded in July after weakness in June, though volatility often stayed muted for some time after the low and prices tended to move sideways.
Weak Ethereum ETF flows are also weighing on the durability of the altcoin rebound. Altcoin Vector said spot Ethereum ETFs posted net inflows of 140,000 ETH in April, only to reverse into net outflows of 260,000 ETH in May. On a cumulative basis this year, net outflows have reached 680,000 ETH. Until ETF money posts several months of sustained net inflows, rebounds in Ethereum and other major altcoins are likely to amount to short-term volatility rather than a lasting recovery.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io
