Bitcoin Futures Account for 88.65% of Trading, Deepening Leverage-Driven Market Structure

Forecast Trend Report by Period

See more mid- to long-term trend analysis

Bitcoin and major altcoins are becoming increasingly driven by derivatives rather than spot trading, a shift that could heighten market volatility, according to an analysis.

CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk, in a report analyzing Binance trading data published on May 31, wrote that shrinking spot liquidity and the rising share of derivatives trading are reshaping the market into a leverage-driven structure.

As of May 29, total Bitcoin trading volume stood at about $12.1 billion, the report said. Perpetual futures accounted for 88.65% of that total.

That means roughly $9 out of every $10 in Bitcoin trading on Binance is taking place in the futures market rather than spot, with price discovery being driven more by derivatives positioning than by spot supply and demand.

If the share of spot trading falls below 15%, the market could become even more fragile. In an environment of thin spot liquidity, even relatively small spot selling could trigger a chain of forced liquidations and deleveraging, amplifying price swings.

The pattern was even more pronounced in altcoins.

For Hyperliquid, futures trading accounted for virtually 100% of activity. The figure was 93.93% for Ether and 89.32% for Solana.

By contrast, 99.69% of all USDC trading was recorded in the spot market.

Crazzyblockk wrote that mature crypto assets are increasingly being used as leverage trading instruments, while many altcoins are trading more like speculative products for directional bets.

He added that traders should pay closer attention to open interest, or OI, and funding rates than to simple trading volume. Until futures-market dominance eases, the risk of sharp liquidity-driven moves may persist.