- BTC falls towards 60k
- US CPI is expected to rise to 4.2% YoY, a 3year high
- BTC ETF outflows & rising competition for capital
- BTC Technical Analysis
is falling, slipping back below 63k after the U.S. launched a new wave of strikes on Iran, triggering a risk-off mood across financial markets ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen more than 2% over the past 24 hours and is now down 17% so far this month.
The latest leg lower is tracking a broader risk-off move across global markets. The tech-heavy closed 1% lower yesterday, while futures are pointing to further losses at the open. The weakness suggests investors are reducing exposure to higher-risk assets amid growing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The deterioration in sentiment comes amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions after U.S. strikes against Iranian targets overnight and as President Trump also said that a diplomatic agreement could be reached within days. The conflicting signals have increased uncertainty and kept investors cautious ahead of today’s CPI report.
What to Expect From US CPI
U.S. is expected to accelerate to 4.2% year-on-year from 3.8%, marking the highest reading in three years. The data come after a third consecutive month of solid job growth, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve has room to focus on inflation at next week’s FOMC meeting rather than concerns over economic growth.
Markets are currently pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will raise by 25 basis points before the end of the year. Hotter-than-expected inflation could push Treasury yields higher and strengthen expectations of tighter monetary policy, creating a less supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
BTC ETF Outflows and Rising Competition for Investor Capital
Beyond the macro environment, Bitcoin continues to face liquidity headwinds. Institutional demand remains weak, with SoSoValue data showing BTC ETFs recorded a further $77.4 million in net outflows on Tuesday. This follows four consecutive weeks of withdrawals totalling $5.4 billion.
Total net assets held by spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to $77.6 billion, the lowest level since Trump won the 2024 U.S. election. Persistent net outflows suggest institutional investors are cautious amid rising rate expectations and increasing competition for capital elsewhere in financial markets.
Attention is also turning to Friday’s IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest market debuts in history. The listing could be another test of liquidity, particularly as investors increasingly focus on AI opportunities. Anthropic and OpenAI also expected to pursue IPOs later this year. The pipeline of $1 trillion-plus technology listings could continue to attract capital that might otherwise flow into cryptocurrencies.
As a result, Bitcoin is facing pressure from multiple fronts -a hawkish macro backdrop, persistent ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and growing competition for investor capital. Unless inflation data provide a positive surprise or institutional flows begin to stabilise, the path of least resistance for BTC may remain lower in the near term.
BTC Technical Analysis
Bitcoin ran into resistance at the 200 SMA, then rebounded lower, broke out of the rising channel, before finding support around 60k. The price is consolidating above 60k and the RSI remains in oversold territory.
Sellers would need to break below 60k to strengthen bearish momentum and to bring 55k, the round number, into play ahead of 50k, the August 2024 low.
Immediate resistance is at 65K, the April low. A break above here opens the door to the lower band of the rising channel at 74K before the 200 SMA at 78.2K. Above here, buyers could gain traction towards 82.5k, the May high.
More analysis
Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money. The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated on its website / T&Cs. Some services or products may not be available in your jurisdiction. The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.
